Track record

    How we report performance.

    Every published signal is priced at emission and again 24 hours later against the same liquidity pool. Hits, misses and chop are reported together — there is no curated subset on this page.

    Audited measurements · live

    What actually happened 24 hours later.

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    Performance by chain · measured outcomes

    Each chain judged on its own record.

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    Returns are direction-normalised and net of a per-chain execution cost estimate. A hit rate is withheld until a chain has at least 30 measured signals in the window; until then the sample count is shown instead.

    Latency · awaiting measured signals

    Source transaction to published signal.

    Event-time instrumentation started with the current scoring model. This panel fills in as signals are published under it — we do not quote a latency figure we have not measured.

    This page exists so you can judge us on measured outcomes rather than claims. Numbers appear only once there is enough data behind them; until then you see the sample count instead of a percentage.

    At a glance
    24h
    Outcome measurement window
    ±2%
    Hit and miss threshold, net of costs
    100%
    Published signals graded, misses included
    30
    Measured signals before we publish a hit rate
    How to read this page
    01
    Start with the audited panel
    Live measured outcomes for the selected window, with a 95% confidence interval once the sample is large enough.
    02
    Check the score bands
    Hit rate split by score band shows whether a higher score actually earns more conviction. Thin bands are shown with their sample size.
    03
    Read the disclosure
    Information service, not investment advice. Returns are direction-normalised and net of a per-chain execution cost estimate, and are not a recommendation.
    How we grade a signal

    The rules we grade ourselves against.

    +24h
    Measurement window

    Entry is the pool price at publication, exit is the same pool 24 hours later. Prices are frozen at publication, so a row cannot be re-baselined after the fact.

    ±2%
    Hit and miss threshold

    Returns are first normalised for direction — a sell signal is right when price falls — then a per-chain execution cost estimate is subtracted. Above +2% net is a hit, below −2% net is a miss, and everything between is chop. Chop is its own bucket and never folded into wins.

    All
    Published signals graded

    Grading runs on every published signal. Rows whose price source cannot be verified across both reads are excluded rather than estimated, which is why the measured count is lower than the published count.

    Why we publish the misses

    Anyone can screenshot a winner. Edge is a distribution, not a highlight reel.

    Honesty

    A service that hides its misses is publishing marketing, not data. Ours sit in the same table as the hits.

    Calibration

    Score-band hit rates let you size to conviction. A signal in the 70 band is not a signal in the 90 band, and the data should show that.

    Small samples

    We publish sample sizes and confidence intervals, and withhold a hit rate until there are at least 30 measured signals behind it.

    Disclosure

    Information service. Not investment advice. SpotX surfaces on-chain signals for research and execution workflows. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and quoted returns exclude fees, slippage and execution constraints.

    Returns are simple unannualized price changes measured from the publication price against the same liquidity pool at +24h. They are unlevered, exclude fees, slippage and execution constraints, and do not represent the return of any actual portfolio. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Scores describe the strength of the observed setup, not the probability of a favourable outcome.